“Poor People” could turn the election, says campaign study

Rev. Dr. William Barber
Rev. Dr. William Barber

By Cash Michaels

August 8, 2020 1:52PM
Cash Michaels
Cash Michaels

If poor and low-income voters turned out to vote as much as those with higher incomes this November, they could change the course of the election, especially in North Carolina, says a new study commissioned by Rev. Dr. William Barber’s “Poor People’s Campaign: A National Call for a Moral Revival.”

According to a new study by Robert Paul Hartley, an assistant professor at Columbia School of Social Work, “Low-income people are less likely to vote in national elections than those with higher incomes for many reasons, including that candidates don’t speak to their issues; they don't think their vote will make a difference; and, or they have mobility or time impediments.”

However, based on data from 2008 - 2016, poor or low-income voters could elect U.S. senators in 16 states in the upcoming Nov. 3rd general elections if they voted at the same level of higher income citizens.

In North Carolina, according to the study, “…low-income eligible non-voters made up 22% of North Carolina’s total electorate relative to average midterm election years from 2006 to 2018.”

The study continued, “The percent of the low-income eligible non-voting population equal to the average 2006-2018 midterm senate election margins is 12%. That means that if 12% of low-income eligible non-voters vote in the midterm elections, they would match the average margin of victory in those contests.”

“In North Carolina, 44% of people are poor or low income - a total of 4.6 million people,” the research states. “This includes 53% of children (1.2 million); 46% of women (2.3 million); 58% of Black people (1.2 million); 67% of Latinx people (699,000) and 36% of white people (2.2 million).”

As a result, the Poor People’s Campaign, a nonpartisan issue advocacy organization, with less than 100 days before the Nov. 3rd election, is undertaking a voter outreach drive in North Carolina and 15 other states called “We Must Do MORE: Mobilizing, Organizing, Registering, Educating People for a Movement that Votes.”

The study is produced by a faculty affiliate of the Center on Poverty and Social Policy and Columbia Population Research Center.

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